Could Anwar Have Won With A Bigger Majority?
My friend, CH sent me an interesting calculation…
At the closing of the poll, it was reported about 65% of the voters turned out (Malaysiakini even reported this piece of info being quoted by Election Commission secretary Kamaruzaman at 6.55pm). But in the end, Election Commission reported that the actual turnout was about 80%. That’s 15% of blunder difference!
At about 7pm or so, one of my source told me that an UMNO insider had estimated DSAI would win by 20-21k majority. PKR estimated DSAI will win by 18k and above. But in the end the majority was lower at 15k.
|
65% Voters |
DSAI |
Arif Shah |
Hanafi |
|
37998 |
29499 |
8407 |
92 |
|
80% Voters |
DSAI |
Arif Shah |
Hanafi |
|
46811 |
31195 |
15524 |
92 |
|
Difference |
1696 |
7117 |
0 |
Total voters registered on the electoral roll is 58, 459 persons.
Did someone put in extra ballot papers for Arif Shah after the poll closed so that UMNO would look better? If the turnout was 65%, Arif Shah would only be a couple of thousand shy from having his candidature deposit forfeited. And Anwar could have won by a much greater majority to the utter embarassment of UMNO.
Old Man Lah, goyah kau…the Rakyat has spoken!
Hi all,
Two keys points I would like to highlight over here:
1. DSAI actually get 77.63% of Pmtg Pauh people vote instead of 66.64%. Conclusion is 8 out of 10 peoples are voted DSAI.
2. base on above percentage (77.63%); I do believe the percentage of Chinese voter support DSAI could be as high as 90 - 95% instead of 70% (by online newspaper)
Interesting Calculation:
65% Voter Out for voting DSAI Vote % Arif Shah Vote % Hanafi Vote %
37998 29499 77.63% 8407 22.13% 92 0.24%
80% Voter Out for voting DSAI Vote % Arif Shah Vote % Hanafi Vote %
46811 31195 66.64% 15524 33.16% 92 0.20%
Regards,
CH